Researchers at CIMNE’s Innovation Unit in Transport, CENIT, have begun working on a significant new project that aims to provide insights into one of the most pressing developments in European shipping: the extension of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to maritime transport. The project titled “Observatory of the Impact of the ETS on Spanish Ports” is led by the Spanish Port Authority (Puertos del Estado) and will run for three years from April 2025. In addition to the CENIT team, Shipping Business Consultants (SBC) and NextPort will bring their expertise to the initiative.

The main objective is to understand how new carbon pricing mechanisms are reshaping shipping decisions and what these shifts could mean for the competitiveness of Spanish ports.

The EU ETS expands to maritime transport

In January 2024, the EU ETS was extended to include maritime shipping. Since then, vessels calling at EU ports have been subject to carbon costs based on their emissions. While the goal of the EU ETS is to encourage greener operations across the shipping industry, it has also raised concerns. The new rules could create unintended market distortions, where shipping companies choose to reroute their vessels to avoid EU ports and the associated carbon charges. This potential shift could have a major impact on the competitiveness of European ports.

Spain’s ports, which are located on global trade routes, are likely to feel these effects acutely. While some may experience traffic reductions due to increased compliance costs, others may find new opportunities to attract cargo by investing in sustainability and innovation. Understanding these dynamics early is key to adapting successfully.

Real-time monitoring to inform decision making

This project is designed to actively monitor, forecast, and respond to changes in the maritime landscape using data-driven tools and advanced analysis. The goal is to detect early signals of shifts in shipping traffic and help stakeholders make timely, well-informed decisions.

Central to this effort is a real-time monitoring system based on AIS (Automatic Identification System) data, integrated with other maritime information sources. This data feeds into predictive models that incorporate both econometric techniques and machine learning, enabling simulations of various regulatory and economic scenarios.

These simulations will help identify which ports are most vulnerable, which are best positioned to adapt, and how different policy options might influence outcomes.

This project will build tools that port authorities, policymakers, and logistics companies can use to stay ahead, including interactive dashboards that will allow users to visualize trends, explore “what-if” scenarios, and identify both risks and opportunities.

Rather than reacting to challenges after they emerge, this system will enable proactive planning. For example, if a certain port appears likely to lose traffic due to increased emissions costs, local leaders can respond by adjusting services, upgrading infrastructure, or promoting green credentials to attract different types of shipping.

Preparing Spanish ports for a greener maritime future

According to Paco Gasparin, Project Manager for CENIT, “this initiative is about turning uncertainty into actionable insight”. The extension of the EU ETS is a complex and evolving challenge for the maritime sector, and Spanish ports “must be prepared to navigate these changes”. Researchers aim to combine real-time data with advanced forecasting tools and to provide a clear picture of how market dynamics are shifting and how each port can respond strategically. Experts will also create and analyse possible scenarios “to anticipate risks and help prevent negative impacts wherever possible”. Ultimately, the Observatory will serve as an essential resource for helping Spanish ports “remain competitive, resilient, and aligned with Europe’s sustainability goals.”