Source: Puertos del Estado
Researchers at CIMNE’s transport innovation unit CENIT, working in collaboration with Shipping Business Consultants and Nextport, have identified an “unusual increase in activity at non-EU ports located close to Europe” in the first quarterly report of the EU-ETS Observatory. The Observatory, led by Spain’s public port authority, Puertos del Estado, was launched to assess the impact of the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) on maritime transport and port activity.
The findings were presented last week in Brussels during a dedicated session hosted by the European Sea Ports Organisation (ESPO), where Puertos del Estado unveiled the first results. The event brought together European port authorities, policymakers, industry representatives and the European Commission to assess the early impact of the maritime EU ETS. The presentation confirmed growing concerns about a measurable decline in the long-distance container connectivity of EU ports compared to neighbouring non-EU ports, placing the issue firmly on the European policy agenda ahead of the upcoming review of the ETS Directive.
According to the first dataset released, there is evidence of growing shipping activity in nearby non-EU countries such as the United Kingdom, Turkey and Egypt. Ports in these countries are not subject to ETS-related carbon costs in the same way as EU ports. If this traffic diversion away from EU ports is confirmed, it would substantiate concerns raised by several European port authorities when the ETS was extended to maritime transport in January 2024.
Shipping networks adjust beyond EU borders
The Observatory’s preliminary findings indicate that the increase in UK port activity does not appear to be driven by stronger economic performance, lower operating costs, or congestion in northern European ports. Instead, the analysis suggests that several shipping lines are adjusting their network configurations, assigning greater strategic importance to UK calls than previously observed. These decisions do not appear to be linked to major changes in British port infrastructure.
A similar pattern has been observed in Turkey and Egypt, where the Observatory notes a marked increase in both vessel capacity deployed and distances sailed. These developments may affect major Spanish Mediterranean ports, including:
- Port of Algeciras
- Port of Barcelona
- Port of Valencia
All three handle significant container flows and compete directly with ports along the North African coast, particularly in Morocco, Turkey and Egypt. Among them, Algeciras, with a strong focus on transhipment, is considered the most exposed to potential traffic diversion and has been among the most vocal critics of the ETS framework.
Methodology and scope of the Observatory
The Observatory’s data is compiled using indicators such as number of port calls, distances sailed and estimated emissions. These are derived from regional data platforms, including AIS-based tracking systems, covering Europe and neighbouring regions, as well as specific areas where notable changes are detected. The Observatory also considers contextual factors affecting maritime networks, including the Red Sea crisis and the restructuring of global shipping alliances.
According to CENIT Project Manager, Paco Gasparin: “First analyses indicate that, while the EU ETS has influenced the reconfiguration of maritime shipping routes, other external factors, such as the temporary closure of the Suez Canal, have also impacted traffic patterns. The interaction of these variables makes it difficult to attribute the observed changes solely to the EU ETS. However, as traffic conditions in the Suez Canal stabilise and the EU ETS reaches 100% coverage from 2026 onwards, the specific extent of its impact on route reconfiguration is expected to become clearer.”
The maritime ETS entered into force in January 2024 in a phased approach, initially requiring shipping companies calling at EU ports to surrender allowances covering a portion of emissions generated on voyages to or from the EU. From 1 January 2026, the obligation will extend to 100% of applicable emissions. Several major carriers have already introduced ETS surcharges to reflect these additional costs.
In parallel with the Spanish Observatory, the European Union is also issuing monitoring reports on the impact of the ETS on the EU port system, in line with the commitments made when the legislation was adopted.
